November 6, 2012

Tomorrow (November 6, 2012) our nation will once again go to the polls and cast votes for electors to eventually elect the President of the United States.  This particular election cycle has seen what I believe is an unprecedented level of bias in most of the "old media" types in favor of President Obama.  I have seen at least one independent study that has indicated that is a true statement.

Today CNN released a poll that showed Obama up by 1 (O - 49, R - 48).  By this account, the election will be really close.  Unfortunately for CNN, I took a statistics class and understand that polls/statistics can be made to say anything if done poorly. 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Nationally, polls (well done polls) indicate that 33.3% of us identify as Democrat, 39.1% identify as Republican.  This gives Republicans a +5.8. 

For comparison, in November of 2010 (the landslide election for Republicans), 34.7% identified as Dem, 36.0% identified as Rep.  This was a +1.3.

In November of 2008 (an election Obama won 52.9% to 45.7%), 41.4% identified as Dem, 33.8% identified as Rep.  That was a -7.6. 

I share these numbers because the CNN poll is weighted in favor of the Democrats by 11.  What that means is that CNN is assuming that while Democrats only had a 7.6% advantage in 2008, they anticipate Democrats will have an 11% advantage this time around...in spite of reliable numbers that indicate that they will not have a 7.6% or 11% advantage, but will be at a 5.8% disadvantage. 

Or, stated differently, if I went to the Democratic National Convention and asked only those people attending wearing Obama t-shirts, his poll numbers would look pretty good too.

Or, using the numbers I presented with this:

2008 - D +7.6 - Obama win
2010 - R +1.3 - highest loss of a party in midterm since 1938 - big Republican win
2012 - R +5.8 - CNN says Obama ahead by 1. 

Additionally, CNN indicates in that same poll that Romney is ahead with independents by 24 points.  (59 R, 35 O).  

So, in the last 4 years there has been a 13.4% shift from D +7.6 to R +5.8 and Romney is up with Independents by 24%.  If these numbers are anywhere close to accurate (and based on historical perspective, I believe they are) it should be a huge Romney win.

However, I have no doubt that until the numbers are officially reported, the old media people will do what they can to convince us that Obama is ahead and should win.

With that said, I have done this before and I think I did pretty well.  So, here goes again:

Tomorrow's headlines today:

Morning: 

President Obama finishes strong and goes to vote.

Romney counting on a miracle.  

Close race.

Down to the wire.

Voter intimidation in minority areas already reported.

Will Republicans ground game materialize?

Obama leads during early voting.

Early African American vote strong.



Evening:

Exit polls in East Coast States show Obama ahead.

Evening starting well for Obama. 

Voter intimidation in minority areas reported.

 Down to the wire.




Once the old media people start to realize the Romney significant win/landslide:

Whites show up at polls in record numbers.

Republican base turning out.

More voter intimidation in minority areas.

Dems expected to hold Senate.

Exit polls show country divided along racial lines.

Romney starting to pull away.

Can President Obama hold on?

Sandy costing President the election?



Wednesday morning:

Romney wins, but fails to convince African Americans.

Widespread voter intimidation in African American communities.

People failed to understand Obama message.

Dems hold Senate / No clear mandate for Romney / Obamacare will live

What does a Romney win mean for the nation (story will be filled with various, vague horrors)

What happened?

Shocking!



Long term:

Various accusations of African American intimidation due to historic low turn out (ignoring that about 50% of African Americans (again, depending upon poll) oppose gay marriage for example).

No mention of "do nothing" congress since Dems still control Senate.

Any government failure blamed on Republican President and House (ignoring Dem Senate). 

Various articles encouraging "compromise".  (Especially if Repubs win Senate). 




Have a good night and vote for values.  Make sure you vote.

Aloha.